Identifying the actions necessary to deliver the advanced modelling tool is an essential element in defining and agreeing an overall project plan. To plan for the development and delivery of an agreed model we must first identify and assess the most effective means of building it.
Moving the project forward is an important part of the Observatory’s plans. This is evident in the commitment of funds by the Observatory to commission and deliver the scoping and technical feasibility report.
Why we needed a scoping report
The Observatory has reviewed academic work that has been done in the area. The academic work has, however, generally been focused on individual themes; land use, economic development, urban growth, transport, demographics and so forth. The ambition of the stage two proposal is to draw these individual themes into a single framework.
There are different modelling methods available – spatial econometric, agent based modelling, cellular automata, systems dynamics – each with their own strengths and weaknesses. Furthermore, we believe that having a mapping (GIS) interface will make the model more accessible to users.
The Observatory’s experience and discussions with academics have concluded that bringing these themes into a single modelling tool is feasible but a challenge. It represents a major advance in regional planning models and would, when delivered, place the region at the forefront of regional policy modelling.
The scoping report aimed to provide a feasibility assessment for drawing together the existing work into one single tool. The report provides a review of existing methods (PDF, 1.8MB). It will then be able to outline potential solutions. Finally it provides the Observatory and partners with a project plan with associated costs and other resource requirements.
Scoping study: February to March 2007
In February 2007 the Observatory commissioned Cambridge Econometrics to undertake a technical assessment study (PDF, 615KB) for an integrated, spatial policy model. The methodological study was undertaken in collaboration with Prof. Peter Allen at Cranfield University.
Scoping study findings
The conclusions of the scoping study were presented at a seminar held at the Observatory on 17 May 2007. Representatives from regional and local partners were present.
The scoping study concluded that the most effective option was to develop a layered sub-regional model. At a minimum the model would consist of 34 spatially linked local authority districts.
Employment and population levels (PDF, 0.7MB) would be co-determined spatially. Using an attractivity function the spatial feedbacks can be modelled.
Economic distance can be represented using drive-times. The proposal does not include explicit transport modelling. However, the changing spatial patterns of employment and residence could be used as an input to assist detailed transport models.
Below the local authority the region would be sub-divided into 735 cells. These cells would correspond to Middle Super Output Areas (MSOA). The spatial dynamic relationships would be modelled using a cellular automata approach developed by Guy Engelen. The diagram above shows the approach as it was applied to Puerto Rico. The cells would have multi-dimensional characteristics and be linked to a 'neighbourhood' of cells.
The MSOA level geography would allow the construction of regional bespoke geographies such as the areas relating to regeneration zones, high technology corridors as well as urban-rural classifications. For details of the West Midlands spatial delivery areas see our maps page.