With the support of Advantage West Midlands, we commissioned Cambridge Econometrics to build a dynamic integrated spatial model. The model is a significant advance in regional policy modelling and employs sophisticated mathematical techniques developed over 30 years.
Regional and local policy experts and researchers attended a workshop with the project team on 22 April 2008 at Advantage West Midlands.
Workshop aims
The project had two overarching objectives:
- To raise awareness of the strategic added value of the model to senior policy makers.
- To breakdown silo thinking and encourage inter-disciplinary discussion to draw out key issues not provided by the data.
The second point highlights the importance placed on local knowledge; there have been expessed concerns about the efficacy of published data, particuarly at local authority geography levels.
Cambridge Econometrics presented an outline of the approach and discussed issues relating to estimation. The workshop discussion notes (PDF, 120KB) are available from the morning and afternoon sessions.
Some of the key questions raised were:
- Will the model be able to assess specific policies, such as redevelopment of New Street station or will it be restricted to a single regional level strategy?
- How will questions of skills be addressed?
- Is housing supply and affordability addressed?
- How is the physical environment addressed?
Models should not rely entirely on data
Integration of local knowledge and expertise in identifying the underlying economic, demographic and environmental relationships is an essential element in the model's development. While academic and wider research, underpinned by statistical data analysis, provides broad estimates of relationships, there are always local issues and concerns that cannot be captured in broad statistics.
Furthermore, the project team have found that previous projects have struggled to gain acceptance as they have been developed in isolation. In their experience of working in model development in the UK and abroad, they have observed the fallout from several unsuccessful projects involving attempts to build and hand over an economic model, in which the result has been that the model has quickly fallen out of use.