The climate change chapter in our State of the Region Update Report 2007 has three key elements.
Firstly, we present the evidence of the changing regional climate and projected changes under various scenarios.
We also look at the implications of these changes on key sectors and resources.
Finally, we consider what this means for regional policy makers.
The evidence
The chapter presents the historic evidence that the region's climate has changed over the course of the 20th century.
Annual average temperatures in the West Midlands are estimated to have risen by 0.6°C during the 20th century, with several of the warmest years on record occurring since 1989, and overall the 1990s being the warmest decade on record.
Average summer rainfall has decreased over the 20th century, while average winter rainfall has increased.
UKCIP climate change scenarios project these trends to continue, with most of the warming occurring in the South East of the region.
Under the high emissions scenario regional average annual temperatures could rise to 4 degrees celcius higher than the baseline average by the end of the century. Under the high emissions scenario, summer precipitation could be nearly half of the baseline average while winter precipitation could be 20% higher.
The chapter also provides broad measures of CO2 using a consumption and production measure of CO2 emissions.
The implications
We consider the implications of the projected climate change on key sectors and resources for the region:
- Water supply and demand
- Flooding
- Land management
- Economy and business
- Built environment
- Transport
- Energy
- Health
The implications present challenges to the region. Identified challenges are:
- The region needs to provide the information people need to take the decisions that will reduce their use of carbon. It also needs to ensure that the infrastructure is in place to give people real choices.
- Regional policies will need to support businesses through the changes which a new approach will require.
- The region needs to find ways of encouraging this kind of co-operation between businesses.
- It is critical to the West Midlands that innovative approaches to reducing energy consumption are encouraged.
Public policy implications
- Integrate adaptation to legacy climate change into all strategies.
- The importance of a robust and transparent evidence base.
- Support for businesses to acknowledge challenges and opportunities through new markets and process innovations.
- Public feel disengaged; debate needs to be accessible, open and relevant.
Key questions
The chapter highlights key issues that rise from climate change and highlights areas that need to be considered when current and future policies are made.
Some of the issues considered are only just emerging and data and evidence to monitor these issues are not as comprehensive as we would like. Information gaps have been raised and we will continue to work with partners in the region to try to fill these gaps in our understanding.